Oct 18, 2012

There's a lot of us who still think our vote doesn't matter, but don't fool yourself.  Even vote matters and after reading the following story you'll understand even more what I'm talking about.  If we want the President to be re-elected we have to show up in BIG numbers.  

(Wash Post) -- Political analysts (including The Fix) spend a good bit of time these days talking about important voter groups — Latino voters and female voters, in particular.

But all of the focus on these groups has obfuscated one fact: Mitt Romney is performing very, very well among white voters. And in fact, most recent polls show him winning the white vote by more than any GOP presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan.

Some recent national polls have shown Romney losing the Latino vote by upwards of 40 or 50 points  – a result that, if it came to pass, would significantly hurt the GOP’s chances of winning the White House, given the rapid growth in the Latino population.

But even if Romney sustains a huge loss on the Latino vote, he could very well offset that (and much more) by out-performing his Republican predecessors when it comes to white voters, which are still about seven times as much of the electorate as Latinos. Indeed, it’s not unreasonable to think that Romney could win 60 percent or more of white voters this year.

The most recent national polls from four pollsters — Gallup, Monmouth University, Fox News and the Pew Research Center — all show Romney winning the white vote by more than 20 points. That’s something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reagan’s landslide 1984 reelection win.
(The most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, we should note, shows him winning whites by just 11 percent.)

In 2008, white voters made up nearly three-fourths of the vote, while Latinos comprised 9 percent. Let’s say that, in the election on Nov. 6, there is a surge in the Latino vote (up to 11 percent of the electorate) and a coinciding drop in the white vote (down to 72 percent).

Given how small the Latino vote remains, the difference between losing it by 36 points — as John McCain did in 2008 — and losing it by 45 points — a worst-case scenario for Romney — amounts to about a 1 percent overall shift in the national race.

Meanwhile, if Romney won the white vote by 22 percent — a 10-point improvement over McCain — that would gain him 7 percent of the national vote over McCain and essentially even out the national popular vote.

None of this is to say, of course, that the Latino vote isn’t important. It’s a fast-growing part of the electorate and one that Republicans are going to have to start competing better for in the very near future — and preferably, for them, this year.

And as the Latino vote grows, the white vote becomes less and less of the electorate.

But as far as the 2012 election goes, Romney’s strength among white voters could very well offset his and the Republican Party’s continued struggles among minorities, and be good enough to win Romney the presidency.


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